Searching for a way out of Europe's deep crisis, David Cameron has suddenly become a devout federalist. Given half a chance, the prime minister preaches the virtues of a united European fiscal policy ‑ in other words, a common approach to how EU states tax and spend. He wants to reduce the power of states to act independently from one another in financial and economic policy. He hails as 'remorselessly logical' the thrust of official proposals to create first a banking union, then a fiscal union followed by a full political union. The European Parliament, by 501 votes to 132, added its not inconsiderable weight to this federalist push. (Strangely, despite their leader's call, Tory MEPs voted against.)
In the main, the European Council has taken some good decisions. It has allowed the EU's bail-out funds to recapitalise Spanish banks directly, thus cutting politicians out of the loop. This deserves to be popular. Secondly, the leaders agreed on an ambitious programme of investment in innovation and competitiveness, hoping for job creation.
Yet it seems that not all Cameron's colleagues agree with his federalist prospectus. Some rich countries of the north of Europe, like Finland and Holland, are showing an alarming lack of solidarity with their southern partners as everyone tries in vain to rectify their own sovereign debt problems.
The European Commission has now to turn the tentative decisions of the heads of government into real legislative proposals. The first target will be to strengthen banking regulation and supervision in the eurozone under the auspices of the European Central Bank ‑ something which European Liberals have been calling for for at least two years. The corruption of much of the British banking sector under lax national regulation suggests that the City of London has much to gain from electing to be part of a tough, single Frankfurt based rule book, especially for its euro dominated operations. Other measures will follow quickly on.
The catch, of course, is that Cameron wants federalism for everyone else but himself. Winston Churchill took much the same attitude sixty or so years ago. But the great man lived in a different age when theUKstill had the last vestiges of Empire and sterling was a global reserve currency. Cameron is a lesser man than Churchill, and a lot more foolish.
The probability is that in 2015 there will be a big EU constitutional convention whose first task will be to craft for Britain a formal second-class membership. At that stage, and not before, will there be a referendum. Unless the Lib Dems and Labour pull together on a radical change of course, the British MEPs elected in 2014 are likely to be the last.
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